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Diabetes Care Prospective Study of Hyperglycemia and Cancer Risk Address correspondence and reprint requests to Pär Stattin, Department of Surgical and Perioperative Sciences, Urology and Andrology, Umeå University Hospital, 901 85 Umeå, Sweden. E-mail:
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RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—In the Västerbotten Intervention Project of northern Sweden, fasting and postload plasma glucose concentrations were available for 33,293 women and 31,304 men and 2,478 incident cases of cancer were identified. Relative risk (RR) of cancer for levels of fasting and postload glucose was calculated with the use of Poisson models, with adjustment for age, year of recruitment, fasting time, and smoking status. Repeated measurements 10 years after baseline in almost 10,000 subjects were used to correct RRs for random error in glucose measurements. RESULTS—Total cancer risk in women increased with rising plasma levels of fasting and postload glucose, up to an RR for the top versus bottom quartile of 1.26 (95% CI 1.09–1.47) (Ptrend <0.001) and 1.31 (1.12–1.52) (Ptrend = 0.001), respectively. Correction for random error in glucose measurements increased these risks up to 1.75 (1.32–2.36) and 1.63 (1.26–2.18), respectively. For men, corresponding uncorrected RR was 1.08 (0.92–1.27) (Ptrend = 0.25) and 0.98 (0.83–1.16) (Ptrend = 0.99), respectively. Risk of cancer of the pancreas, endometrium, urinary tract, and of malignant melanoma was statistically significantly associated with high fasting glucose with RRs of 2.49 (1.23–5.45) (Ptrend = 0.006), 1.86 (1.09–3.31) (Ptrend = 0.02), 1.69 (0.95–3.16) (Ptrend = 0.049), and 2.16 (1.14–4.35) (Ptrend = 0.01), respectively. Adjustment for BMI had no material effect on risk estimates. CONCLUSIONS—The association of hyperglycemia with total cancer risk in women and in women and men combined for several cancer sites, independently of obesity, provides further evidence for an association between abnormal glucose metabolism and cancer. INTRODUCTION Recently, total cancer risk was reported to be modestly increased in women and men with elevated levels of fasting glucose in a very large cohort study of 1.3 million Korean men and women with 53,833 incident cases of cancer (3). Five substantially smaller prospective studies (4–8) with a total number of 11,000 incident cases of cancer also have reported data on associations between fasting or postload glucose and cancer incidence or mortality. Here, we report the results from a prospective study in northern Sweden, with the aim to estimate the relationship of hyperglycemia, as measured by fasting and postload glucose, with the risk of cancer overall and the risk of cancer at specific organ sites.
Statistical methods The appropriateness of the assumption of a Poisson distribution of our data were examined by computing a dispersion parameter as the ratio of the Pearson’s 2 statistics over the degrees of freedom of the model (14). This examination showed only a very minor degree of overdispersion, indicating that the Poisson assumption was acceptable. Repeated measurements of fasting and postload glucose at a resurvey performed 10 years later were available for 9,796 and 8,818 subjects, respectively. On the basis of these repeat measurements, RR estimates were corrected for attenuation due to random variations over time in plasma glucose levels (15,16), as described in detail in the online appendix (available at http://dx.doi.org/10.2337/dc06-0922). Absolute risks of developing cancer within 20 years from age 40 were calculated as described by Gail et al. (17). Calculations were performed for two age categories, 40–49 and 50–59 years. Age-specific hazards of dying from competing risks were calculated from the same cohort. Absolute risk calculations were based on both uncorrected and corrected RR estimates. The attributable fraction, based on an exponential relationship between exposure and cancer, was calculated using both uncorrected and adjusted RR estimates. The attributable fraction expresses the expected reduction in disease occurrence that could be achieved if study subjects in the top quartile were shifted to any of the three lower quartiles. Estimates of the attributable fraction were obtained using both the uncorrected RR estimates and using RR estimates that had been corrected for attenuation due to random measurement error. The 95% CIs for the attributable fractions were estimated using a bootstrap method, based on 1,000 iterations (18). All statistical analyses were performed using SAS, version 9.1.3 (SAS, Cary, NC).
to view the table go to http://care.diabetesjournals.org/cgi/content/full/30/3/561 The absolute risks of cancer development during a 20-year period for a 40-year-old woman in the bottom and top quartiles of fasting glucose were 7 and 9%, respectively, and corresponding estimates corrected for attenuation effects due to within-subject variations in glucose level over time were 7 and 11%, respectively. The fractions of total cancer attributable to a level of glucose represented by the top quartile in women were calculated to be 5% (95% CI 2–8) and 4% (1–8), respectively, which rose to 10% (7–15) and 9% (6–15), respectively, after measurement error correction. CONCLUSIONS— For women, our RR estimates for cancer, all organ sites combined, were very similar to those in two recent reports. In the large Korean cohort study with 53,833 incident cases of cancer, Jee et al. (3) reported an RR of 1.15 for the top versus bottom quintile of fasting plasma glucose (and 1.22 for men), and Rapp et al. (8) reported very similar risk estimates, with RRs of 1.28 and 1.20 for the top versus bottom category of fasting glucose for women and men, respectively, from a recent large Austrian cohort study including a total of 5,212 cases of cancer. A number of our findings concurred with those in previous prospective studies, including the rather strong and statistically significant association of fasting glucose levels with risk of pancreatic cancer (3,5,19), as well of endometrial cancer (20). We also observed a twofold increase of risk of malignant melanoma for study subjects with high fasting glucose. This latter finding has not been reported previously, although in our cohort (21) as well as in some other studies (22,23) excess body weight was found to be related to increased melanoma risk. Among women aged <49 years, who presumably were premenopausal, we observed an increase in breast cancer risk for elevated fasting glucose levels in accordance with an earlier observation (24). For men, we found no statistically significant association between hyperglycemia and overall cancer risk. However, for prostate cancer, which accounted for more than two-thirds of all male cancers in the Northern Sweden Health and Disease Cohort, risk was nonsignificantly inversely related to glucose levels. In agreement with our findings, a modest decrease in prostate cancer risk has been consistently observed in men with diabetes (25,26). After exclusion of prostate cancer, the association between glucose levels and overall cancer risk became weakly positive in our cohort. The true risk associated with long-term hyperglycemia may have been underestimated in our study as well as in other studies with a similar design (3–7), as there is substantial intraindividual variation over time in fasting and postload plasma glucose levels (27,28). Random variations over time will tend to bias estimates of relative and absolute risk toward the null (regression dilution bias) if the true determinant of the disease outcome is the long-term, usual level of glucose (28,29). We calculated relative and absolute risk estimates corrected for attenuation due to random fluctuations over time, using information from a second set of glucose measurements. After correction, the increase in RR associated with the highest levels of fasting and postload glucose in women for cancer at all sites combined increased substantially from 26 to 75% and from 31 to 63%, respectively. In the 13 years for which there was sufficient number of observations, mean levels of fasting and postload glucose rose 17 and 8%, respectively, and with increasing age there was a clear increase in the prevalence of hyperglycemia in our cohort, in accordance with what has been reported for other populations (30,31). Thus, the fraction of total cancer incidence related to abnormal glucose metabolism is likely to increase in the near future in our population as well as in other populations. In conclusion, our finding of a statistically significant association of hyperglycemia with overall cancer risk in women and an increase in risk of cancer at many sites in women and men is essentially in accordance with the observations in some other large cohort studies, suggesting that abnormal glucose metabolism is a general risk factor for cancer development. Although the proportion of subjects with hyperglycemia was highest among obese subjects, the absolute numbers of subjects with hyperglycemia were larger among women and men who were overweight or had normal body weight, and plasma glucose levels remained associated with cancer risk after adjustment for BMI. This observation may have considerable implications for public health strategies, as key determinants of hyperglycemia are known and modifiable. A lifestyle that decreases plasma glucose levels may reduce overall cancer risk not only among overweight or obese subjects but most likely also among subjects with normal body weight. At the same time, current evidence suggests that such a strategy also would contribute to the prevention of diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Acknowledgments Footnotes A table elsewhere in this issue shows conventional and Système International (SI) units and conversion factors for many substances. The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked "advertisement" in accordance with 18 U.S.C Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact. Received for publication May 5, 2006. Accepted for publication December 6, 2006.
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